Saturday, June 07, 2008
(A women minister not wearing head scarf!)
There are stupid bloggers, posting various news.... check this...
This is all due to the kickbacks of the DPE group which deals with the Public Sectors, running into crores, as rumours say.
Microsoft legally sells boxed software, which is taxable, but escapes in the name of royalty. Now will pay crores!
Friday, June 06, 2008
It started with 'C', then C++, then java, then perl and many more…
Technology gets better day by day, and it's easy to get started with Python in few minutes.
- Python is a very high level language.
- Programmers, who have used c, c++ or java can smell the familiarity, while appreciating the ease of coding.
- Python can also be used as a object oriented notation.
- Python is a interpreted language. (each line is read @ runtime)
- Python is extensible from other languages and also to other languages.
- The code looks simple and less complex, compared to other base technologies. For instance, there is no open curly brace and close curly brace, defining a block, but a tab would do.
- Python can be used with GUI too.
- Python coders can use data structures effectively for design and implementation, than in any other language.
Downloads Required :
python download (available for windows, mac and unix)
A must see full python tutorial, which is cool!
It is a high level language and you cannot just keep going on with C and C++, for the whole of your life. A more convincing reason - Google search is coded in python, and so are so many other Google products.
Lets get started. (I assume you have downloaded Python and put the IDE shortcut on your desktop)
You must add the python directory to your class path. In windows, you right click My computer -> Properties -> (Advanced Tab) -> System Variables ->
Add or edit variable "path" to append your python directory path.
Or simply in DOS (requires restart of DOS)
Lets get started with the code..
Resisting the temptation to print a "hello world" , which you can achieve by just saying "hello world" (enclosed in double quotes or in single quotes) and pressing the return key (I told you, its simple), we ll write a function to print the Fibonacci series up to n.
a, b = 0, 1
while b < n:
a, b = b, a+b
>>> fib (10)
1 1 2 3 5 8
>>> fib (100)
1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89
Things to notice:
1. This must go first actually, the code looks simpler and less complex than c or java.
2. The >>> is the prompt, which you can change like in unix or solaris.
3. The def command declared a function, by getting its signature and there are no irritating return types or even data types for that matter.
4. The tab after the first line specifies that, all code inside it, are enclosed in a block. The same holds good, when we implement the while loop.
5. After the while command, I did not specify any braces to enclose the condition. Python is more intelligent to know it by itself. The return type need not be a boolean (actually there is no boolean).
6. I did not compile or do any thing to the program and it got executed fine.
7. The print command spits the value of the variable to the screen and a return feed ("\n" in java). The comma that follows it, overrides it to maintain the output in the same line.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Traveling via or to UAE, please read this carefully...
Here is a list of banned drugs, 374 to be precise (no painkillers that are sold over the counter in India).
Also read this article. (man.. 3 minute Poppy seeds on bun to get you 4 years, tough luck! Also by mistake if you stamp on Charas/Hasish and if a thread is stuck on your shoe, another 4 years... sends shivers!)
I am just wondering how does Alfa & Parwaaz Biriyani gets exported from Hyderabad to UAE? (KazKaz = Poppy seed powder, typically found in Biriyani mix)
Note - Now I wonder why my Amrutanjan and Vicks vanished from my handbag, when they were checking my bag at Dubai during 2003.
Why do those guys.... have braced teeth and weight on the paunch and bespectacled?
In India we don't mind crooked teeth (thethu pallu looks cute ella?) and squint eye. But USA guys do. Better looks and knowledge is enough to gain respect, get good schooling and live with a decent job ever after.
An ABCD I know - 2nd gen - fitting your descriptions - in IBM has survived from 1989, voila! Multimillion $ mansion overlooking Hudson and timeshare on a bizjet and all... with same description offsprings, 3rd gen (visa thakolri Dodamma, namodu US barubodu)
Obvisously the games they play are on XBoxes, inducing less sports & physical activity. Ban them!
I did a quick survey on the most populated states in the USA (mostly southern), by African Americans, who were tortured to the core by inequality till 1964, would give Obama a 67 delegates lead in November (130 in all, but needs 270 plus). Never mind Bill Clinton who won all these states, and continuously Al Gore and John Kerry have carried too.
What about other states? Hillary has won handsomely (pun!) and indeed would be a better choice! If Democrats don't nominate, she should contest as an independent and there are more takers for her to win (50% vote guaranteed).
So what is the final outcome? John McCain winning over Obama by few points, if Hillary doesn't contest. May the winner help India.
I have to set my mood to check with KP System.
My kids nowadays are behaving so average, dumb, like idiots and stupids, watching TV cartoons all the time, reminds me of the USA kids I rant about, and dont bother about the studies etc. I cannot get a cheaper school than MITRA academy other than Kannada medium schools. I might have to rob or steal to put them in decent schools run by big thiefs.
I am worried how they would end up studying and eventually make a living? Cry baby cry!
My son does not talk Kannada our mother tongue (forget about reading or writing) or Tamil (he grew up in Chennai - so expected to speak a bit). It is always English (cartoon way!) and he doesnt get words to express himself. All he wants is TV and food (junk, most of the times).... overweight like me already! May be he has dyslexia or is autistic. I have to spend some money to find about it.
My daughter wants to do all the stuff my son wants to do, but gets tired of playing, and gets stuck to TV. Eat junk and cry always for small small things.
Both of them dont get along with the kids at all, and get beaten up if they go to play. So I had put them in Karate in the apt. complex only to know that, it is an Indian version. Stupid!
Luckily they were able to learn swimming, the only achievement this Summer.
Today, I filled up my car's fuel tank, and I thought fuel has become really expensive after yesterday's price hike. But then I compared it with other common liquids and did some quick calculations, and I felt a little better. (I drive to my farmland site near Hosur, every month, and on the way I fill the tank - mostly 30 litres, which saves me now Rs 6.84 * 30 = Rs 205, saving me 3.5 litres and costing me only 7 kms - give or take 1 litre)
Diesel in Bangalore: Rs.39.84 per litre
Petrol in Bangalore: Rs. 58.78 per litre
Coca Cola 330 ml can : Rs.20 = Rs.61 per litre
Dettol antiseptic 100 ml Rs.20 = Rs.200 per litre
Radiator coolant 500 ml Rs.160 = Rs.320 per litre
Pantene conditioner 400 ml Rs..165 = Rs.413 per litre
Medicinal mouthwash like Listerine 100 ml Rs.45 = Rs. 450 per litre
Red Bull 150 ml can : Rs.75 = Rs.500 per litre
Corex cough syrup 100 ml Rs.57 = Rs. 570 per litre
Evian water 500 ml Rs. 330 = Rs. 660 per litre. Rs. 500 for a litre of WATER???!!! And the buyers don't even know the source (Evian spelled backwards is Naive.)
Kores whiteout 15 ml Rs. 15 = Rs. 1000 per litre
Cup of coffee at any decent business hotel 150 ml Rs. 175 = Rs. 1167 per litre
Old Spice after shave lotion 100 ml Rs. 175 = Rs. 1750
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
The curious case of Benjamin Button... for you....
P/E – What is it all about?
The most commonly used valuation metric by investors is the price to earnings ratio or commonly referred to as the P/E ratio. Though commonly used, it is also misunderstood for various reasons. Here is an attempt to simplify this valuation metric.
How is P/E calculated?
It is calculated by dividing market price of a stock by EPS (earnings per share). EPS in turn is calculated by dividing the net profit of the company by the number of shares outstanding.
Having calculated the P/E, what does it stand for?
Lets assume a stock is trading at Rs 100 and its EPS is Rs 20. The P/E multiple is 5 (100 upon 20). Assuming that the company's EPS is likely to be Rs 20 each year, it will take 5 years for the investor to realize Rs 100. Of course, the assumption here is that the company's EPS is not growing at all.
Now taking the example of commonly traded stocks like Infosys and . While the former trades at a P/E multiple of 25 times, the latter trades at 7 times. Why is it so? It is believed that the stock price of a company tracks its long-term earnings growth potential. In an economy, some companies (or sectors) are likely to grow at a faster (like say software or pharma) rate. So, the P/E multiple of companies from these sectors are likely to be higher and vice versa. Depending upon growth expectations, the P/E multiple could vary.
There is one crucial factor here i.e. expectations. Though Infosys may be trading at 25 times earnings, if EPS is expected to grow by 25% per annum, the investor could realize the money in four years.
P/E – Is it a discount or a multiple?
There are two ways of quoting P/E valuations:
1. Tisco is currently trading at Rs 350 discounting its earnings by 5.5 times
2. Tisco is currently trading at Rs 350 at a P/E multiple of 5.5 times
Which is right? The answer to this lies in the formula for calculating P/E itself.
P/E is Market price divided by EPS. If we were to reverse the formula,
Market price = P/E multiplied by EPS. Stock prices reflect future earnings potential and not past performance. Discounting the current price with historical EPS is not a right way to analyse companies.
Take a hypothetical case. If Tisco's EPS for the next year is expected at Rs 50 and the growth in EPS is around 15%, the market price is calculated by multiplying Rs 50 with 15 times i.e. Rs 750. When determining the stock price, one does not discount earnings but multiply earnings.
What is the 'right' P/E multiple for a stock?
The answer to this question is not easy. In the previous example, we have assigned a P/E multiple of 15 times because EPS is expected to grow by 15% in the immediate year. Is this the right way? Not necessarily. Here, it is important to understand industry characteristics of the company.
For a commodity stock like Tisco, EPS tends to grow at a faster rate when steel prices are recovering or are at the peak and the EPS is likely to decline at a faster rate during downturns. To qualify this statement, if we look at EPS growth of Tisco from 1994 to 2004, the compounded growth in earnings is 17%. However, the CAGR growth in the last three years was 193% (the recovery phase). So, if one believes that steel demand is likely to trace long-term economic growth and that 15% growth is unsustainable, the P/E multiple should be ideally much lower than 15 times. Similarly, the long-term growth prospects for software companies could be much higher than commodities. So, the P/E multiple for software stocks could be at a premium.
Determining the P/E multiple for a stock/sector also depends on:
1. Historical performance – Why does Infosys trade at a higher P/E multiple compared to Satyam? By historical performance, we mean, focus of the management (without unrelated diversifications), ability to outperform competitors in downturn/upturns and promise vs performance. This can be gauged if one looks at the last three to five year annual reports of a company.
2. The sector characteristics – Margin profile, whether it is asset intensive and intensity of competition. Less asset intensive sectors (say, FMCG) are considered defensive and therefore, could trade a premium to the overall market.
3. And more importantly, expectations. Take the case of textile stocks. Expectations of significant growth opportunities post the 2005 quote regime phase out has resulted in upgradation of P/E multiple of the textile sector.
When is P/E not useful?
1. Economic cycles - In FY02, Tisco was trading at a P/E multiple of 20.5 times its FY02 earnings. Was it expensive? Based on FY05 expected earnings, Tisco is trading at a P/E multiple of 5 times its earnings (at Rs 250). Is it cheap? If one ignored Tisco in FY02 on the basis that it was 'expensive' on the P/E multiple in FY02, the opportunity loss is as much as 350%. Businesses operate in cycles. During downturn, EPS will be low but P/E will be inflated and vice versa. At the same time, during expansionary phase, corporates invest in capacities. In this case, high depreciation costs suppress earnings. P/E, in this context, may mislead investors.
2. Not actively tracked – There are number of companies in the that are not actively tracked by investors, analyst and institutions. For example, Infosys' average price was Rs 2 in FY94 and the P/E multiple was 17 times. At times, P/E multiple may be lower because some sectors/stocks are not in the limelight.
3. Expectations – On the downside, some stocks may be trading at a significant premium because earnings expectations are higher. High P/E also does not mean a good stock to buy. What if the expectations are unrealistic? One needs to exercise caution to this extent.
4. Means little as a standalone number – P/E, as a standalone number, means little. Besides P/E, it is also important to look at margins, return on net worth, cash generating ability and consistency in performance over the years to assign a value to a stock.
5. Market sentiment – During bear phases or when interest in stocks is low, valuations could be depressed. Since equities are considered less attractive during these periods, valuations are likely to be below historical average or below earnings growth prospects.
When is P/E useful?
A powerful metric – Unlike metrics like discounted cash flow method and so on, P/E is relatively a simple and at the same time, a powerful metric from a retail investor perspective. Though the factors behind determining the 'right' P/E multiple are important, a historical perspective of a stock's P/E could make this exercise less complex.
To conclude, valuation of stocks involves subjectivity. A person X may assign a higher P/E multiple to the stock as compared to a person Y depending on the risk profile and growth expectations. In the end, it all boils down to how the company is likely to perform.
It is not that stock market is always right when it comes to valuing a stock! As Mr. Benjamin Graham puts it "in the short term, the market is a 'voting' machine whereon countless individuals register choices that are product partly of reason and partly of emotion. However, in the long-term, the market is a 'weighing' machine on which the value of each issue (business) is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism". Watch the earnings!
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Monday, June 02, 2008
This IPL season should be started early at 7 PM next season. Luckily schools are closed. Vacation time.
The concept of the highest team bidder gets the hosting of final looks staged. They always wanted this to happen at Mumbai isnt it? Good show anyways!
My kids are growing up and hence, their time is invested in hockey and tennis TV shows - are coming up and I dont want cricket to spoil them.
I request BCCI to take inputs from me on how to spend those 350 crores for the betterment of people. I would start by helping farmers in Vidharba region.
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Way to go Dhoni and men.
They will lift the cup for sure!
The TOI article today morning says the bookies have made Rs 22,000 crore so far. I told you so!
That guy studies well, apart from little bit of extracurricular & karate. 872668. http://tnresults.nic.in
Now he has gone to some mark mill school at Vidhya Vikas Kendra in Tiruchengode. (my wife talking about reserving seats for our kids now, Sharon in 3rd and Prithiv in 1st, there for their 10th and 8th, after my retirement at 45, is going on). Note that that school got state first in Plus Two and almost all in first group goes to Engineering or Medical (30%).
He was admitted in Plus 1 based on recommendation and a cost of about Rs 1 lakh per annum with hostel fees in first group, and he has finished one month of schooling (not sure whether that is illegal, even before the actual admission starts after results).
His parents were too worried about him passing History and Geography paper (did not sleep before that exam, and didn't want to write it, crying and all). He has given not so good opinion on it. He has got 94 marks! He has got 99 in maths owing to question paper printing error of 1 mark question (8 looks like 5, something of that sort), which was not taken for award of marks. With his horrible Tamil handwriting has scored 92, so he lost out to a girl (obviously good handwriting) on being school first by 3 marks. Talks about Kongu's (Kongunadu-Coimbatore area) and Kaambu's second meaning...
So when I called him to congratulate on 30th at 10AM, and asked him about lying, he said I had to give it back to my parents for the torture to make me slog and study without any play! Poetic Justice!