Tamilnadu elections Predictions 2026

 Tamilnadu elections Predictions 2026

 

TVK will be the new force getting 40% vote share and 100+ seats. They will make it big in Cities and Big towns, wherever cinema reach is there.

DMK will get 25% vote share and about 70+ seats.  They are expected to lose Chennai and Coimbatore region. Some of the alliance members like Congress, VCK, Communists, DMDK and IUML will support Actor Vijay as new CM and probably participate in the government.

ADMK will get 25% vote share and about 60+ seats. Due to Delimitation issues, BJP will draw a blank. May be L Murugan might be the only winner in Avinashi. DMK will be 3rd there, TVK pipping ahead.

ADMK will be heading for a major split after elections, with one faction supporting TVK and get ministries.

It is going to be a hung Assembly, and Actor Vijay will become CM on May 10th, 2026 

There could be re election for 20+ seats during July 2026.

The above can vary a bit, little here and there, based on my astrological calculations. 

  

Exit Poll Results Indian MP elections 2014

These are some of the Election Exit Poll predictions...




In Past Star News - CVoter was accurate for UPA Now 140-180 #ExitPoll  Result wud rely on 150+ minority seats and Urban voters like for AAP.

#ExitPoll so SP, BSP, ADMK, DMK, YSRC can swing it back for UPA along with outside support from Left, AAP.

#ExitPoll SP 25 - 30, BSP 20, ADMK 20, DMK 15, YSRC 10 - 15 can swing it back for UPA along with outside support from Left 70, AAP 10 - 15.

Astrologically Ruling party combine has a chance to continue with an Young Leader.

Also May 19 - 23 would be the period the new government would be formed, which is aiding current ruling party combine.

PMK and voice in Tamilnadu

PMK has been a force to reckon with in 6 districts of Tamilnadu (now 10 MP seats).

2009 is a different ball game, with four fronts in the run up.



See the above graphics. Clearly shows that they are good in about 18 - 20 Assembly segments. For sure wins all alone in 4 assembly segments only.

I bet their individual vote share would be about 4% in polled basis and 6% avg in alliance maths.

What kind of leaders they have to swings votes in another MP seat? No idea.

I wrote in Twitter recently #PMK proved in 1989 they have voice in 6 constituencies, to swing the result. It holds good even now. Their footprint is in 10 MP seats!

Now someone related to them (in caste basis) has to tell whether they got something in terms of returns.....

Elections and stock market

Here is a snippet from TOI in 2004 about the stock market in relation to the elections that are going to be held now in 2009. Well I don't agree that market should peak now, without any business environment logic.

***********

... expect to mark up your stock portfolio soon after the new government takes charge next month, since in all probability, there
will be a buying spree after the uncertainty surrounding the poll process ends.

That has been the market's trend after each of the last three Lok Sabha elections — in 1996, 1998 and 1999.

Data on BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty show that within four to six weeks of the final results in those three general elections, the indices touched a new temporary peak and gained 8-13.5 per cent.

In fact, the gains were as high as 25 per cent if one considers the rise in the indices from the first day of the poll till the short-term peak is reached.

In 1999, when the BJP-led coalition won the elections, the Sensex witnessed a 380 point (8 per cent) rally to breach the 5,000 level.

"In 1999, there was a clear mandate (for the BJP and its allies) and hence the euphoric rally that we saw just after the elections that year," said Ambareesh Baliga, V-P, Karvy Stockbroking.

In 1999, within days of the polls, the Nifty rallied 8 per cent from 1,393 to reach a peak of 1,505 and the Sensex also moved up the same percentage.

Even in 1996 and 1998, when no party got a clear mandate and the governments
were multi-party coalitions, the market rallied as investors were relieved of poll-related uncertainties.

"Those (1996 and 1998) were end-of-the-uncertainty kind of situation," said Arun Kejriwal of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services.

In 1998, after the election outcome, the Sensex spurted 13.5 per cent to 4,281 while the Nifty clocked a 10.5 per cent gain to 1,231. Likewise, the two benchmark indices gained 10.2 per cent and 9.7 per cent, respectively, after the 1996 polls.

Market players however said it is mostly retail investors who enter the market during these post-poll rallies, while 'smart money' exits.

"Smart operators return only when there are signs of consolidation in the market... after the new government is formed and expectations for the budget start building up," said a domestic fund manager.
(TOI - 2004)